Caleb Downs tops Giants projections at No. 5; Zion Young leads Bears mock at No. 25. Mel Kiper’s final two-round update — released April 15 — captures rare consensus and lingering uncertainty heading into Thursday’s draft in Pittsburgh.

4 related posts

Projected #1 Pick: Las Vegas Raiders ·
Giants’ Key Pick: Caleb Downs S Ohio State at No. 5 ·
Bears’ Consensus: Pass rusher at No. 25 ·
Draft Date: April 23, 2026

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
  • 2026 NFL Draft begins April 23 in Pittsburgh (ESPN)
  • Giants hold No. 5 pick; Bears at No. 25 (ESPN)
  • Mel Kiper released final two-round mock on April 15, 2026 (ESPN NFL Draft)
  • Giants gained extra top-10 picks after Dexter Lawrence II trade (ESPN)
2What’s unclear
  • Whether Bears actually take DE or pivot to OT at No. 25 (injury to Ozzy Trapilo cited as factor)
  • Giants’ exact plan for picks at Nos. 10 and 11
  • Whether McShay’s Bears trade-up scenario materializes
3Timeline signal
  • Giants traded Lawrence on Saturday night, Kiper updated mock same week
  • Consensus on Bears pass rusher formed by April 8
  • Bears have seven total picks including No. 60 from DJ Moore trade
4What’s next
  • Round 1 begins Thursday, April 23 in Pittsburgh
  • Giants hold two top-11 picks entering Day 1
  • Bears’ full seven-pick haul spans Rounds 1-7

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 Top Picks

The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh, and if the leading mock drafts are any guide, the top of the board won’t surprise anyone. Every major projection has the Las Vegas Raiders selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. That consensus extends through the top several selections, with the New York Jets landing at No. 2 and reportedly targeting quarterback Ty Simpson. Arizona holds No. 3, Tennessee at No. 4.

Mel Kiper’s final two-round mock, released April 15 on ESPN’s draft coverage, sets the current benchmark. His mock underwent a notable update after the Giants traded defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II on Saturday night — a move that added a second top-10 selection to New York’s war chest. Kiper had to revise his Giants projections mid-cycle, pushing picks to Nos. 10 and 11 alongside the original No. 5.

Raiders at #1

The Raiders’ selection of Mendoza, per multiple outlets including NFL Daily on YouTube, represents the clearest consensus pick in this year’s draft. Draft experts broadly agree that the Indiana quarterback is the top signal-caller available, giving Las Vegas a potential franchise cornerstone at the game’s most important position.

Jets QB Projection

At No. 2, the Jets’ mock selection of Simpson aligns with New York’s apparent need to address its quarterback situation. The projection has gained traction across multiple draft simulators and expert mocks, though the Jets’ front office has kept its cards close ahead of Thursday.

Cardinals and Titans

Arizona and Tennessee round out the top four in most projections. The Cardinals’ pick at No. 3 carries significant trade value — teams looking to move up could target Arizona’s slot as an entry point. The Titans at No. 4 face a similar dynamic, with the fifth pick in New York’s hands creating additional leverage for potential trade-down partners.

Bottom line: Analysts broadly agree on the top five selections — Mendoza to the Raiders, Jets targeting Simpson, and Giants holding a pivotal pick at No. 5. Whether the Giants keep No. 5 or trade it for additional capital will shape how the rest of Round 1 unfolds.

2026 NFL Mock Draft: New York Giants

The Dexter Lawrence trade changed everything for the Giants’ draft weekend. New York sent its star defensive tackle to the Bengals on Saturday night, and in exchange received additional selections including picks at Nos. 10 and 11 — giving the franchise two top-11 selections in a single draft. Kiper’s final mock adjusted to reflect the new reality, placing Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at No. 5 and projecting how New York might use its newfound capital.

The implications run both ways: Schoen can anchor his secondary with Downs at No. 5, then address additional needs with the extra selections — or package picks 10 and 11 to move further up and land a higher-ranked prospect. Read more on the 2026 NFL Mock Draft: Raiders Consensus Mendoza No. 1.

Projected Picks

Kiper’s official projection, available via the ESPN NFL Draft page, has the Giants selecting Caleb Downs at No. 5. The Ohio State safety represents a high-character, high-production pick for a secondary that has needed reinforcement. Kiper noted the Giants’ updated draft picks after the Dexter Lawrence trade include Nos. 10, 11, 36, 37, 39, and 43 — an unusually deep draft capital position.

The team’s standard picks, per Giants.com’s official mock draft tracker, would include Round 1 No. 5, Round 2 No. 37, Round 4 No. 105, Round 5 No. 145, and Round 6 selections at Nos. 186 and 192 — though the Lawrence trade significantly altered that picture.

NFL.com’s five-round mock added context, projecting the Giants to select guard Emmanuel Pregnon in Round 2 at No. 37, with a cornerback coming in Round 4. The site noted that New York appears among teams frequently mocked to address the cornerback position in later rounds.

Team Needs

The Giants’ needs entering the draft center on several positions. Safety ranks high after years of inconsistency at the position. Offensive line depth remains a priority. Cornerback, as the NFL.com five-round mock suggests, has emerged as a Round 4 target in many projections. The team’s dual top-11 picks give general manager Joe Schoen flexibility to address multiple needs or consolidate assets through trade.

Why this matters

The Dexter Lawrence trade turned a single first-round pick into a multi-pick treasure chest. For Giants fans, the question isn’t just who New York takes at No. 5 — it’s whether Schoen packages picks 10 and 11 to move up further, or stays put and builds depth across multiple positions.

The Dexter Lawrence trade reshaped the Giants’ entire draft strategy. With two top-11 picks, New York can address its safety need immediately while maintaining flexibility for Day 2 moves.

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Chicago Bears

The Bears sit at No. 25 in Round 1, and if there’s one thing every expert agrees on, it’s the position group Chicago should target: pass rusher. “Every mock draft you read, from ESPN analysts Mel Kiper Jr. to Matt Miller, has the Bears projected to take a pass rusher with the 25th pick,” ESPN’s draft team noted as of April 8. That consensus has held for weeks, with Montez Sweat entering his second season as the only established edge threat on the roster.

Key Selections

Kiper’s final two-round mock, released April 15, has the Bears selecting Missouri defensive end Zion Young at No. 25. His rationale: pairing Young with Sweat could finally give Chicago the complementary pass-rushing tandem it’s sought since Sweat’s arrival. “The Bears’ attempts to give Montez Sweat a running mate off the edge have fallen short, but Young could finally be the answer,” Kiper wrote in ESPN’s draft coverage.

The three-round mock from Kiper added detail on Chicago’s early selections: Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods at No. 25, with Penn State edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton at No. 57. Field Yates, meanwhile, mocked Pittsburgh safety/linebacker Kyle Louis to the Bears at No. 60.

Trade Scenarios

Todd McShay offered a different vision: trade up from No. 25 to No. 22, surrendering the Bears’ No. 129 selection to do so, and select Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. Per Sports Illustrated’s Bears coverage, McShay’s projection targets defensive backfield help rather than the pass rush. Whether Chicago prefers Young at defensive end or follows McShay’s secondary-focused approach will be among the most-watched decisions Thursday night.

What to watch

An injury to offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo could shift Chicago’s priorities. If the Bears’ medical staff flags Trapilo as unavailable early, Kiper noted that the team might pivot from pass rusher to left tackle at No. 25 — a position currently contested by Braxton Jones, Jedrick Wills Jr., Theo Benedet, and Kiran Amegadjie.

The Bears’ pick at No. 25 carries more uncertainty than most realize. Whether Poles reaches for a pass rusher as expected or pivots to offensive tackle depends on Trapilo’s medical status.

The Bears’ full draft capital spans seven selections. Here’s the complete picture:

Chicago Bears 2026 Draft Picks
Round Pick Acquisition
1 No. 25 Original
2 No. 57 Original
2 No. 60 From Buffalo (DJ Moore trade)
3 No. 89 Original
4 No. 129 Original
7 No. 239 Original
7 No. 241 Original

Seven total picks give Chicago flexibility to move up for a targeted prospect or accumulate mid-round depth at multiple positions.

Expert 2026 NFL Mock Drafts: Kiper, McShay, Walter

Three sources anchor the current mock draft landscape: Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN, Todd McShay at ESPN, and WalterFootball’s industry-known projections. Each offers a slightly different lens on how the first round might unfold.

Mel Kiper Predictions

Kiper’s final two-round mock, published April 15, remains the most-cited projection in the lead-up to Thursday. His work covered all 64 picks across two rounds, with detailed reasoning for each selection. The Giants’ Dexter Lawrence trade forced an in-cycle update, placing Caleb Downs at No. 5 and projecting Emmanuel Pregnon at guard in Round 2. For the Bears, Kiper’s final word was Zion Young at No. 25 — though his earlier three-round mock showed Peter Woods at the same spot.

The Kiper-Yates alternating Round 1 mock draft podcast offered additional context, with the two analysts trading picks and explaining their reasoning in real time. That podcast represents a key resource for understanding the granular disagreements between top evaluators.

Todd McShay

McShay’s Bears projection diverges from Kiper’s by favoring a trade-up for safety Dillon Thieneman. That divergence highlights a broader question in Chicago’s draft room: Does the team value immediate pass-rush help (Kiper’s approach) or secondary reinforcement that could develop into a long-term starter (McShay’s approach)? McShay’s mock requires surrendering a fourth-round pick to move up three spots — a trade cost that reflects his confidence in Thieneman’s ceiling.

WalterFootball

WalterFootball’s projections typically carry weight among dedicated draft followers for their granular positional analysis and willingness to project trades. While Kiper and McShay anchor the consensus, Walter’s site often surfaces sleeper candidates and trade scenarios that later materialize. The site’s 2026 coverage includes team-by-team positional needs and historical accuracy metrics that help contextualize projections.

“The Bears’ attempts to give Montez Sweat a running mate off the edge have fallen short, but Young could finally be the answer.”

— Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN Senior Draft Analyst

“With only one week to go until the 2026 NFL Draft, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has officially dropped his final 2-round mock draft.”

— Ruthie Polinsky, Opening Drive Host

Bottom line: Kiper’s mock anchors the consensus, but McShay’s trade-up scenario reveals a split in how draft analysts view the Bears’ priorities. If Poles moves up to No. 22, he signals that secondary depth outweighs the pass-rush consensus — a bet on Thieneman’s long-term potential over Young’s immediate impact.

NFL Mock Draft Simulator and 2026 Picks

For fans who want to test their own theories, NFL mock draft simulators offer a way to explore trade scenarios and team needs without waiting for Thursday night. Most simulators pull from the same draft order and prospect rankings that the experts use, though the user-controlled variables allow for more aggressive trade packages than analysts typically project.

How Simulators Work

A mock draft simulator inputs the official draft order, assigns prospect rankings, and lets users select picks for each team. Some tools incorporate team need algorithms; others prioritize best player available. Trade functionality typically uses historical compensation charts to validate proposed deals. The best simulators update in real time as news breaks — an injury, a contract extension, or a trade (like the Dexter Lawrence deal) can shift projections across the board within hours.

For the 2026 draft specifically, simulators incorporating Kiper’s final two-round data will reflect the most current consensus. Users can test scenarios like “Giants trade picks 10 and 11 to move up to No. 6” or “Bears move up to No. 22 for Thieneman” and see what the compensation package would look like under standard trade value charts.

Draft Order and Times

Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft begins at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23, in Pittsburgh. The first round typically runs three to four hours with each pick receiving a five-minute window. Rounds 2 and 3 follow Friday, with Rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday. Total draft time across three days: approximately 12 hours of picks, trades, and reactions.

What’s confirmed

  • Mel Kiper’s final two-round mock released April 15
  • Giants held No. 5, now also own Nos. 10, 11 after Lawrence trade
  • Bears at No. 25, consensus targeting pass rusher
  • Draft begins April 23 in Pittsburgh at 8 p.m. ET
  • Bears have seven total picks, including No. 60 from Buffalo trade
  • Kiper mocked Caleb Downs to Giants at No. 5
  • Kiper mocked Zion Young to Bears at No. 25

What’s rumored

  • Whether Bears pivot from DE to OT if Trapilo injury matters
  • Giants’ exact plan for Nos. 10 and 11
  • Whether McShay’s trade-up materializes
  • Whether Raiders actually take Mendoza or field trade offers
  • Whether the Jets commit fully to Simpson or explore alternatives

Related reading: 2026 NFL Mock Draft: Raiders Consensus Mendoza No. 1

Additional sources

youtube.com, nfl.com, youtube.com, nfl.com

Expert projections from Kiper and McShay pair well with hands-on practice using the best free mock draft tools to simulate trades and picks for teams like the Raiders.

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Frequently asked questions

What factors influence 2026 NFL mock drafts?

Team needs, available prospect rankings, recent trades, medical information, and workout results all shape mock draft projections. Analysts weight these factors differently — Kiper emphasizes scheme fit, WalterFootball prioritizes positional value, and some models use algorithmic need scoring. The Dexter Lawrence trade demonstrates how a single transaction can reshape projections across multiple teams.

How often are NFL mock drafts updated?

Major analysts typically update their mocks weekly in the weeks leading up to the draft, with final versions released 1-2 weeks before Thursday. Kiper’s final two-round mock dropped April 15 — roughly a week before the 2026 draft begins. Post-combine and post-free agency updates represent the most significant revision periods, as team needs crystallize once rosters take shape.

Which prospects rise in 2026 mocks?

Ohio State safety Caleb Downs has climbed boards significantly, landing at No. 5 in Kiper’s final projection for the Giants. Missouri defensive end Zion Young emerged as the consensus Bears target at No. 25. Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman appears in McShay’s Bears projection despite requiring a trade-up. Peter Woods (Clemson) and Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State) surface in later-round mocks for Chicago.

What is the draft order basis for 2026?

The draft order follows inverse regular-season standings, with Super Bowl winner picking last. The Raiders hold the first pick following their 2025 performance; the Bears pick 25th as a non-playoff team with a worse record than several other non-qualifiers. The Giants’ additional picks at Nos. 10 and 11 result from the Dexter Lawrence trade with Cincinnati.

Are 2026 NFL mocks accurate historically?

Mock draft accuracy varies by position and timing. Top-five picks tend to land within 2-3 spots of projection, as those selections receive intensive analysis. Later rounds see wider variance, with trades and medical information causing frequent shifts. Kiper’s record shows reasonable accuracy on first-round selections, though mid-round misses are common. Mocks released in final week typically achieve 60-70% accuracy on Round 1 picks.

How to run your own 2026 mock draft?

NFL draft simulators allow users to make picks for all 32 teams. Key inputs: draft order, prospect rankings, team need data. Most simulators include trade functionality using standard draft pick value charts. For best results, update prospect rankings based on latest news and cross-reference team needs with available talent at each selection. Practice trade-down scenarios to see what compensation package might be realistic.

What positions do teams need in 2026?

Giants: safety, offensive line, cornerback. Bears: edge rusher, offensive tackle, secondary depth. Jets: quarterback. Raiders: quarterback, skill positions. Cardinals: defensive talent, offensive line. Titans: receiver, pass rusher. Needs shift with trades — the Lawrence move created new needs for the Giants while adding picks for Cincinnati.

For Giants fans, the decision to trade Lawrence and gain picks at 10 and 11 opens a window that rarely appears in NFL drafts. Schoen can double down on safety with Caleb Downs at No. 5, then address multiple needs with the extra selections — or package picks 10 and 11 to move further up and land a higher-ranked prospect. Either path forward is defensible. For Bears fans, the Zion Young pick represents the most likely outcome, but the Trapilo injury introduces enough uncertainty that general manager Ryan Poles might reach for insurance at tackle instead of adding the pass-rusher every mock has promised. Thursday night in Pittsburgh will answer both questions.