2026 NFL Mock Draft: Raiders Consensus Mendoza No. 1

The Las Vegas Raiders have burned through three first-round quarterbacks since the AFL-NFL merger—none of whom became the franchise answer the team desperately needed. By 2026, that history hangs over every mock draft projection. The consensus is unusually clear for this draft cycle: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 to Las Vegas in nearly every major outlet’s projection. But there’s real divergence on who fills the spot right after him. Ty Simpson shows up everywhere from the Jets at No. 16 to the Rams trading up to grab him in Round 1, yet the mocks don’t agree on his ceiling—or whether he could actually challenge Mendoza for the top spot.

Projected #1 Pick Team: Las Vegas Raiders · Top QB Prospect Mentions: Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza · Common #2 Pick: New York Jets · Rounds Covered in Mocks: 1-7 · Key Mock Sources: NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports

The table below summarizes the core data points surfaced across multiple mock drafts and prospect databases.

Who are the top prospects for 2026 NFL Draft?

Top quarterback prospects

The quarterback class centers on two names, though the gap between them varies by outlet. Ty Simpson from Alabama enters as a junior redshirt with one full college starting season under his belt. His early 2025 numbers were eye-opening: 20 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 68% completion rate through eight games before injuries struck. Fox Sports reported his NFL Combine prospect grade at 6.30 from Next Gen Stats, landing in the “will eventually be a plus” category. The Simpson family has said publicly they’re confident he’ll be a top-32 pick and plan to attend Day 1 of the draft.

CBS Sports’ mock projects Simpson with 3,567 passing yards, 93 rushing yards, 5 interceptions, and 30 touchdowns across his collegiate career, ranking him as the 11th overall prospect and second quarterback. His physical profile checks in at 6’2″, 210 pounds according to the NFL Mock Draft Database. One significant wildcard: Bleacher Report notes Simpson was beset by injuries after a strong first half of the 2025 season, raising questions about whether his early dominance or his late-season struggles better predict his NFL ceiling.

Top overall prospects by position

Beyond quarterbacks, edge rushers have climbed into top-10 conversations across multiple mocks. The quarterback position still dominates Round 1 projections, but the real depth question is whether teams can find pass-rush help later in the draft without reaching. Mel Kiper and Bucky Brooks produce position-by-position rankings, though their full 2026 mocks weren’t available in this review cycle—any specific Kiper Round 1-2 picks mentioned elsewhere should be treated as unverified until his official release.

Who holds the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Current draft order projections

The Las Vegas Raiders sit at the top of most 2026 draft boards. Five separate NFL.com mock drafts project them selecting a quarterback first overall, with Sporting News’ seven-round mock and Charles Davis’ mock draft 3.0 both landing on Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza at No. 1. The team’s own mock tracker on Raiders.com acknowledges the conversation about whether Simpson could challenge Mendoza for the top spot but notes that shift hasn’t materialized yet in public projections.

Jets at No. 2 and Cardinals at No. 3 appear frequently in these mocks, though the order shifts when trade scenarios enter the picture. NFL.com’s four-round mock includes four trades that reordering selections, with the Jets picking up a quarterback at No. 16 via a trade with Indianapolis.

Teams like Raiders, Jets in top spots

The Jets’ long-term quarterback situation keeps them in Round 1 QB conversations even without a confirmed top-3 pick. They’re mocked most frequently to select Simpson at No. 16, though Sporting News’ seven-round mock actually has them taking Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Simpson falling to No. 33 in Round 2. That discrepancy—the same prospect appearing at No. 2 versus No. 33—underscores how draft position can vary dramatically across outlets.

Raiders under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak are explicitly targeting a franchise quarterback, according to Sporting News’ reporting. Their historical track record informs every projection: they’ve drafted only three quarterbacks in the first round since the AFL-NFL merger—Marc Wilson (15th overall, 1980), Todd Marinovich (24th overall, 1991), and JaMarcus Russell (1st overall, 2007).

What QBs will be in the 2026 draft?

Top 10 QB rankings

Fernando Mendoza headlines the class as the consensus No. 1 quarterback. The Indiana junior (redshirt) measures 6-? and 236 pounds according to Sporting News. Across five NFL.com mocks, he’s the Raiders’ selection at the top spot consistently. NFL.com’s analyst quoted that “Mendoza’s intelligence and ability to step up in the clutch should end the team’s inability to find a franchise signal-caller in Round 1” — a pointed reference to the Raiders’ history with high-profile quarterback misses.

Ty Simpson occupies the second tier but with significant variation. The NFL Mock Draft Database aggregates multiple projections and currently ranks him 397th overall for 2026 with a 0.0% first-round probability in their system—numbers that directly contradict his Round 1 placement in NFL.com, CBS Sports, and Sporting News mocks. The aggregate site tracks consensus across many sources, which may be capturing more skeptical outlooks, while individual outlet mocks lean optimistic.

Key names like Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza’s case rests on consistency and poise. Multiple mocks highlight his ability to perform in clutch situations as his defining trait. He’s not the physical outlier some prospects are, but his decision-making and field vision have drawn comparisons to quarterbacks who succeeded in structured offensive systems. The Raiders’ interest in pairing him with Kubiak’s offensive approach makes logical sense given their coaching changes and roster construction priorities.

Who is the best prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Expert consensus #1

Across the sources reviewed, Fernando Mendoza holds the consensus top spot among quarterback prospects. No mock projects anyone else at No. 1 to the Raiders. His strongest selling point isn’t elite athleticism—it’s his processing speed and comfort operating within structure, which NFL evaluators increasingly value in offensive systems built around pre-snap reads.

The expert community hasn’t reached full consensus on a non-quarterback challenging for the top overall slot. Edge rushers appear in top-10 discussions, but the premium on quarterback talent means teams picking in the top five almost universally target that position in this cycle.

Position battles

The more interesting battle is at quarterback between Mendoza and Simpson for draft positioning. Raiders.com’s own mock tracker notes media conversation about whether Simpson can challenge Mendoza for QB1 status but states directly: “I know there’s been some conversation in the media about whether Ty Simpson can challenge Mendoza for QB1. Maybe in 2-3 years.” That timeline—years out—indicates the industry views Mendoza as the clear top prospect in the near term, with Simpson positioned as a strong Round 1 option with upside.

2026 NFL mock draft: Kiper’s pick predictions for Rounds 1-2

Round 1 projections

Mel Kiper is ESPN’s lead draft analyst and one of the most-cited voices in the space. However, no mentions of his 2026 mock draft appeared in any of the sources reviewed for this article. NFL.com’s round-by-round breakdowns exist, Charles Davis and CBS Sports have published their versions, and Sporting News released a full seven-round projection, but Kiper’s specific first-round predictions for 2026 weren’t available in this research cycle. Any claims about Kiper’s exact picks should be verified against his official release.

Round 2 highlights

Round 2 is where Simpson’s draft position gets most interesting. Sporting News has him landing with the Jets at No. 33 in their seven-round mock—not Round 1 at all. CBS Sports and NFL.com both place him in Round 1, with CBS envisioning a Rams trade-up scenario. The NFL Mock Draft Database’s aggregate consensus also ranks him lower than individual outlet mocks suggest. This gap between aggregate skepticism and outlet optimism represents the central uncertainty around Simpson’s draft slot.

Pre-draft workouts have concluded, according to Sporting News, meaning the medical and athletic evaluation phase is complete. What remains is team-specific decision-making that happens behind closed doors until the picks are announced in Pittsburgh.

Timeline signal

The 2026 NFL Draft sits in April with the event scheduled for Pittsburgh. The Raiders’ last No. 1 overall quarterback pick was JaMarcus Russell in 2007—that’s nearly two decades of misses that inform how analysts approach their 2026 selection. Todd Marinovich in 1991 and Marc Wilson in 1980 represent the other two first-round QB selections in the franchise’s history since the merger.

Simpson’s collegiate timeline shows a strong first half in 2025 before injuries intervened. The NFL Combine in early 2026 provided a benchmark grade of 6.30, and pre-draft workouts wrapped in April. Everything is now set for the draft itself—player evaluations are complete, and team decisions will determine the final order.

“Mendoza’s intelligence and ability to step up in the clutch should end the team’s inability to find a franchise signal-caller in Round 1.”

— NFL.com Analyst, via NFL.com

“I can’t imagine a better mentor than Matthew Stafford.”

— CBS Sports Analyst, via CBS Sports

“We feel pretty good about the situation that he’s in right now with the teams that we’re having conversations with.”

— Jason Simpson (Ty Simpson’s father), via Fox Sports

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